![[Re]Group: A Playbook for Turbulent Times](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PUHU!,w_120,h_120,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff2fb4256-d509-4e61-827b-2ee678efbba9_256x256.png)
![[Re]Group: A Playbook for Turbulent Times](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OvcZ!,e_trim:10:white/e_trim:10:transparent/h_182,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2653539-a634-4ef5-9aab-bc4a7546ebc9_1344x500.png)
It gets worse. At least for the declared candidates for the next Secretary-General. Under the Greek presidency, the fifth straw poll saw the entire field going backwards.
Here is the damage report:
Rebeca Grynspan lost the momentum she carried from the last round. She still leads, but lost an Encourage and saw her fence-sitters move to the Discourage camp.
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett lost more ground and now has a daunting nine Discourages, while Rafael Grossi lost two Encourages and his Discourages held at seven.
The rest of the field (Macky Sall, Maria Fernanda Espinosa, Olara Otunnu, and Ivonne Baki) are deep in negative territory.
To win the race, a candidate has to secure nine votes and dodge a veto from any of the permanent members. Grynspan arguably still has her head just above water, but this poll is a boost for those who believe the winner is yet to enter the ring.
Quid Nunc?
Remember the [Re]Group scenarios?
Fortune Rewards the Patient. Give the system time to work and one of the eight candidates will rise to the top of the pile. Late entrants join the fray and take their chances.
Anointed in the Shadows. Behind closed doors, the P5 are cutting a deal for an undeclared candidate. Once announced, the dark horse quickly wins the race.
The Botched Plot. A failed version of the above, as a backroom deal unravels in the cold light of day. After all, plotters often overestimate their acumen (case study: Gianni Infantino).
Into the Abyss. There is no plan, plot, or route to consensus. Cue more deadlock speculation.
Up until today, you could find informed people arguing that Grynspan was executing the first scenario with aplomb. Today’s results however strongly support those who see dark horses lurking around every corner. Surely someone is now being Anointed in the Shadows.
But who? Over at The Guardian, Patrick Wintour has compiled as good a list as any of potential late entrants. The catch? “None of the speculated candidates have given any public indication they wish to be drafted,” he concludes.
(If you want the complete picture, cross-reference Wintour’s list with the tracker over at 1 for 8 Billion or Stéphane Bussard’s roundup in Geneva Solutions.)
If there is a recurring name, it is Lana Nusseibeh from the United Arab Emirates. And that isn’t surprising, given the news reports that jumped the gun on her candidacy back in June.
All In the Timing
Why are new candidates waiting so long?
Probably to line up support before stepping into the light. The game plan for a dark horse is a swift campaign: a quick appearance in front of the General Assembly, a snap poll in the Security Council, and a formal endorsement before the opposition has time to organize.
The next straw poll is reportedly set for Oct. 16, and with it comes the threat of color-coded ballots that expose P5 vetoes (though these may be held back if a new entrant shakes up the field). Assume a dark horse wants to avoid bypassing the General Assembly completely and they need to declare in the next few days, or wait until the seventh round to make their move.
Plots of this kind make for great political theater. Whether they unfold like a well-oiled machine. Or whether they collapse in spectacular fashion. So don’t forget about our tail-end scenarios: The Botched Plot ( the backroom deal fails) or Into the Abyss (where the Security Council has no path to agreement).
In any case, all eyes are on the Greek Security Council presidency.
And on Khalilur Rahman, the new President of the General Assembly, who recently promised to fight for a “fair, inclusive and transparent” process (in other words, one in which more than 15 Security Council members play at least some kind of role in the race).
The End Zone
Reading List
It’s not just about the horse race or who ends up in the winner’s circle, it’s about what the UN looks like when the dust settles in 2027. To balance your diplomatic diet, here are a few pieces that caught our eye from across the Substack ecosystem:
Mehmet Efe Kilic in Oxford Geopolitica: how climate diplomacy is shifting from negotiation to concrete implementation as the COP presidency passes from Brazil to Türkiye and Ethiopia. [read here]
Habib Benzian in The Global Health Paradox: on why WHO’s cautious, administrative self-defense fails to make the bold political case for permanent global health cooperation. [read here] Also Peter Singer who wants more politics and less results from the next leader of WHO [read here]
Tomorrow Is Possible on how the UN80 efficiency drive and budget cuts are quietly freezing out young talent to protect a top-heavy bureaucracy and survey data from 34,000 staff on whether the UN is firing its future. [Part I] [Part II]
