![[Re]Group: A Playbook for Turbulent Times](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!PUHU!,w_120,h_120,c_fill,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff2fb4256-d509-4e61-827b-2ee678efbba9_256x256.png)
![[Re]Group: A Playbook for Turbulent Times](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OvcZ!,e_trim:10:white/e_trim:10:transparent/h_182,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa2653539-a634-4ef5-9aab-bc4a7546ebc9_1344x500.png)
The world is going to hell in a handcart. And while we love the UN at [Re]Group, multilateralism can be boring. Just ask any Third Secretary trapped in a windowless room arguing about square brackets in a Second Committee resolution.
That is why we try to find fresh ways to look at the international system and avoid writing in UN-ese wherever possible. If you are going to add us to your email overload, the least we can do is keep you entertained. (And if you are reading this but haven’t subscribed, please do so now!)
This week, however, we broke our own rule and published a wodge of text — nearly 4,000 words long — on the UN’s development system. This primer brings together all the raw materials on one of the big challenges facing whoever takes over as the 10th Secretary-General.
So for this [Re]Group weekly, we are sharing an overview of the primer's key points in a more digestible (and entertaining) format. We follow up with the strategic questions that they raise for a new Secretary-General and their team — questions that we will unpack in a longer article next week.
Also below: the results of the second straw poll and a roundup of what has happened in a big week in the race to be Secretary-General.
The Development TL;DR
If you haven’t had time to read our primer, here are the main points.
The “funding crisis” is really a post-boom bust. The UN’s development and humanitarian arms are scrabbling for cash, but this isn’t an unprecedented drought, it’s the hangover from a post-2015 boom. Financing reached historic highs following the launch of the SDGs, and expanded further during COVID-19 and other recent emergencies. Current cuts look terrifying because they are being measured against what proved to be an unsustainable peak.
The World Bank is benefiting from the bilateral retreat. As bilateral donors gut their aid agencies (look at the UK’s FCDO), governments seem unconvinced of the return on investment from UN grant-making. Instead, they are shifting a growing share of (shrinking) development budgets into concessional loans. That creates a two-speed multilateral system where the UN is suffering far worse than the multilateral development banks.
“Hunger Games” competition kills strategic thinking. During the high-rolling years, the UN Development System expanded dramatically. Now, dozens of agencies, funds, and programs are competing against one another for a slice of a shrinking pie. It is tough to focus on long-term strategy when your days are consumed by meetings about the next cut in headcount.
The UN faces a delivery problem. Few of the Sustainable Development Goal targets are on track, and core goals like the elimination of absolute poverty and hunger have stalled or are actively reversing, damaging credibility. The UN80 reforms have triggered a series of political battles (mostly over proposed mergers), with limited debate on broader strategic questions.
Read the whole primer for more.
A Problem with Six Faces
In our primer, we quoted a long-ago UN report that compared sustainable development to a Rubik’s cube: “where a solution is impossible with a focus only on one side at a time: all sides must be considered in relation to each other if the puzzle is to be solved.”
The same image could be applied to the UN development system. It has become so complex that few people can see every side of the cube — let alone know how to turn all six sides at once.
Next week, we will explore each of the main strategic questions on development awaiting the 10th Secretary-General. For now, here’s my take on the six faces of the development challenge:
Face 1: Global Goals and Norms. Should the UN roll over the 17 Sustainable Development Goals when they expire in 2030, add new goals (on AI, for example), prune the goals back to the essentials, or abandon the goal framework entirely?
Face 2: A Systemic and Catalytic Role. Should the UN focus on helping developing countries rewrite and navigate global economic rules. And can provide Resident Coordinators with the tools they need to be deal-brokers and strategic advisors to governments?
Face 3: The Coalition Builder. Should the UN become a platform for an “army of doers”? Or is its bureaucracy hardwired to compete with outside partnerships?
Face 4: Operational Delivery. Should the UN scale back its operational role? Or should it position itself as the platform of choice in conflict and crisis settings?
Face 5: Institutional Configuration. Given decisions made across these four dimensions, how should the 44 entities in the UN development system be configured to deliver results?
Face 6: Politics and Funding. Beyond what makes strategic sense, what will Member States mandate and fund the UN development system to deliver? And do governments know what they want — or just what they don’t want?
Further Development
Reading List
Our development primer has lots of links to official sources, but here’s some of the best reading from external experts and commentators.
Will this be the year of the big squeeze on the UN Development System? John Hendra looks at the financial horizon for the UN as major donors cut Official Development Assistance. He finds “an even further deterioration in the quality of the funding it receives thereby undermining its core mission and compromising the multilateral nature of UN support.”
Beyond aid: a new vision for the UN development function. This paper from the German Institute of Development and Sustainability argues that incremental UN reforms have hit a ceiling and calls on the system to pivot away from project delivery toward knowledge facilitation and normative leadership.
The Triple Disconnect: Power, Money, and Voice in the UN Development System. Philipp Schönrock, Frederik Matthys, Arelys Bellorini, and Anna Novoselova map out how decisions in the UN Development System are “increasingly shaped by informal power, financial leverage, and unequal access to influence.”
Mapping of Multilateral Organisations’ Response to the Current Funding Environment. A survey from the Multilateral Performance Network across 31 multilateral agencies tracking the shift from “do more with less” to “doing less with less,” documenting staff layoffs, office closures, and programmatic scale-backs.
The Future of International Development Cooperation: Insights from the Global South. A paper from Southern Voice synthesizes perspectives from researchers across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It calls for Global South countries to act as co-designers and co-deciders in development cooperation, shifting from donor-driven aid toward long-term structural transformation and systemic financial reform.
The SG Roundup
A New Candidate Entered the Fray. The field has expanded to eight candidates with the late entry of Ivonne A-Baki of Ecuador, who was nominated by Tonga.
The GA Dialogues Resumed. Both A-Baki and Uganda’s Olara Otunnu stepped into the limelight this week. PassBlue has a writeup.
The US Pushed Back on the PGA. Tensions have been bubbling for a while between the Security Council and the President of the General Assembly Annalena Baerbock. They spilled out into the open this week when US Ambassador Jennifer Locetta called out the PGA for “overreach and irresponsible actions.” She was especially upset at the informal audience survey at the July town hall.
And the Security Council held the Second Straw Poll. Denmark (which has the presidency) pushed for the poll to be held today, August 21. Results are below, with those from the first poll in brackets so you can see what has changed. (Read our history of how the straw polls work.)
Bad-Tempered August? Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett now leads the pack in “Encourage” votes, followed by a tied Rebeca Grynspan Mayufis and Rafael Grossi. She also boasts the joint-fewest “Discourage” votes. But what’s striking is that the Security Council seems to be in a much grumpier mood than the first round. Average “Encourages” dropped from 6.4 per candidate to 4.9, while “Discourages” jumped from 3.4 to 5.3. Maybe everyone needs a holiday.
