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When Ban Ki-moon and António Guterres won their respective races for Secretary-General, the first straw polls with color-coded ballots took place in early October, allowing the five permanent members of the Security Council (China, France, Russia, the UK, and the U.S.) to signal which candidates they were prepared to veto.
Remember the game theory that lies behind this choice. The P5 pushes for color to show which votes really count. The ten elected members push back. They want to level the playing field for as long as possible.
As this was the last vote while France held the Security Council presidency, I had wondered about a move to colored ballots, but those who predicted the reverse have been proven right. It seems there is still too much uncertainty to move to the endgame.
This has been a good round for Rebeca Grynspan, as she gained an Encourage and shed a couple of Discourages, especially as Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett’s tally didn’t improve. A frontrunner in the last poll, along with Grynspan, she remains stuck with six Security Council members voting against her candidacy.
Grynspan does not yet have a decisive lead, and she may well have a P5 veto lurking among those three still discouraging her, but now looks like the candidate to beat.
This result might also dampen, but will not silence, speculation that a dark horse candidate will soon sweep the field. If the third round pushed the needle towards our Anointed in the Shadows scenario, it has now inched back towards Fortune Rewards the Patient, where a declared candidate from the current field prevails.
In any case, le quatrième straw poll is the last under the French presidency. Greece; it’s now your turn.
World’s Toughest Job: Live!
While a Security Council decision still seems a long way off, there are just 94 days until the 10th Secretary-General is due to start work.
In a special bonus episode of World’s Toughest Job — recorded live at UNGA 81 — we ask: Where should the next Secretary-General start on day one?
The episode is, as Brits like to say, a corker. It kicks off with our fabulous co-host Mark Malloch-Brown interviewing Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley. The PM doesn’t say who she wants to win, but she does think the next Secretary-General needs to be a surfer. (Yes, really. Listen to the episode to hear why.)
Next: Foreign Policy’s Ravi Agrawal referees the Triage Game. The rules are simple. Three rounds: What should the next Secretary-General OWN, what could they DELEGATE, and what must they DROP?
In the hot seat: International Crisis Group’s Comfort Ero and historian Thant Myint-U. Trying to change their minds: Microsoft’s Erica Moret (pushing artificial intelligence), Ishaan Shah (championing future generations for the UN Foundation), and Marie L’Hostis from FORUS (demanding action on the Sustainable Development Goals).
Finally, our equally fabulous host Jasmin Bauomy joins Mark to make sense of what we all just heard. His verdict? They were very good on OWN, quite good on DELEGATE, and weak on DROP. “There wasn’t yet enough real tough-mindedness about saying where the UN should focus,” he concludes.
👉 Listen to the UNGA special episode here.
“Please, sir, I want some more.” But of course: full takeaways from the panel and exclusive outtakes from the interview with Prime Minister Mottley will be published Friday, alongside our regular [Re]Group weekly (working title: The UNGA Hangover).
And if you haven’t already, you must catch up on the first season of World’s Toughest Job, which features a stellar cast exploring eight of the biggest challenges the new leader will find in their inbox.
Multilateralism in an Age of Transactional Sovereignty
Finally, we turn to one of our World’s Toughest Job alumni. Aarathi Krishnan is the founder and CEO of RAKSHA Intelligence Futures, where she works at the intersection of tech, foresight, and global governance.
In episode 7, we asked what the UN can do when the next global shock shocks us all. Aarathi warned that states are retreating into “Transactional Sovereignty” and this makes it harder for them to come together in the face of a shared threat.
We asked her to explore this concept in more detail, and today we publish her analysis. Here are six quotes to make you want to read the whole thing:
On equal legal standing vs. economic reality: “Sovereignty has always been constrained, but what has changed since 1945 is the density and reach of the relationships shaping sovereignty.”
On how to work out who holds the cards: “To understand who holds the power, look at what alternatives each side had (if any). What autonomy was traded for access? What strings were attached? And what is the penalty for walking away?”
On coercion cloaked by process: “Long before it forces a visible reversal, pressure can reveal itself through procedure, like adjournments, abstentions, strategic absences, or sudden shifts in negotiating language.”
On private sector power: “Technology adds a new dimension, as geopolitical relationships flow not just through governments, but through private companies as well.”
On ad-hocism: “When states and private actors feel the UN is no longer equipped to lead, they are bypassing the multilateral system to build their own mechanisms.”
On why it’s all about the timing: “By the time a decision reaches the flags and the microphones, it is already too late. Votes are cast based on relationships that have often been in place for years.”
👉 Read Aarathi Krishnan’s full article here.
ICYMI
Catch up on Mariana Samayoa Martinez and Bojan Francuz’s UNGA 81 digest, Worn at the Seams, Built to Last, with the five trends defining the future of multilateralism and loads of links to the stuff you may have missed.
