Securing the Future

Insights from Igarapé Institute

Based in Rio de Janeiro, the Igarapé Institute is an independent think and do tank dedicated to addressing systemic risks and promoting effective multilateralism where global crises transcend borders. It works to build bridges between the local and the global, connecting Brazil with multilateral efforts, especially in security, nature, and climate.

Here is a roundup of some recent commentary:

An Inflection Point in the AI Race (October 2025)

As artificial intelligence accelerates, this bulletin warns that technological innovation is outpacing safety and alignment protocols. The report outlines systemic threats, from the rapid militarization of autonomous weapons to cascading vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure. To manage these existential risks, Robert Muggah calls for proactive, risk-driven global governance to prevent AI weaponization in cyberwarfare and conflict scenarios, akin to historical efforts to constrain nuclear proliferation.

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Brazil’s BRICS Presidency and COP30: Advances and Next Steps in the Climate Agenda (October 2025)

This briefing examines how the BRICS countries of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, which now account for roughly 40% of global GDP and over half of global carbon emissions, could evolve into a proactive force in global climate governance. As Brazil held the dual presidencies of BRICS and COP30 in 2025, author Laura Trajber Waisbich highlights an opportunity to align the climate and finance tracks for the Global South. The report emphasizes the need for multilateral development bank reform, scaling of concessional finance, and deeper South-South cooperation to bridge the climate finance gap.

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Governance Gaps: Assessing Global Disparities in AI Policy Initiatives Around the World (June 2025)

Drawing on the AI Governance Ecosystem Database, this report maps the divide in global technology regulation. The findings reveal that nearly two-thirds of all AI policy initiatives originate in North America, Europe, and Central Asia, while the Global South remains largely excluded from the rule-making process. Authors Sehajleen Kaur, Katherine Aguirre, and Robert Muggah warn that this regulatory vacuum risks leaving developing economies dependent on AI systems — and their embedded cultural values — designed by wealthier nations. They argue that a more inclusive, multilateral approach is essential to ensure that AI’s economic benefits are equitably distributed. “Cultural values and economic priorities in other parts of the world may differ significantly, leading to misaligned applications and unintended consequences,” they warn.

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